Iran maintains thousands of missiles and can reactivate launchers, according to a Jerusalem Post report. This decreases the likelihood of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by February 28 and the Iranian regime falling by June 30, which sits at 9.5% YES.
The report points to a stalemate, pushing down odds on both Pahlavi’s return and regime change. The Iranian regime fall market dropped from 14% a week ago to 9.5% YES. The retained missile capacity directly undermines the narrative that Iran’s military is degraded enough for internal collapse.
Volume in the regime fall market is $256,884/day in face value, with actual dollars spent at $23,487/day. It takes $32,505 to shift the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a half-point drop, and the market reacted quickly to this report.
Iran’s ability to reactivate missile launchers points to a prolonged conflict, reducing the probability of both regime change and Pahlavi’s entry. At 9.5% YES, a share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a more than 10x return. But for that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in imminent cracks within the regime that aren’t currently visible.
Watch for IRGC defections, Assembly of Experts activity, or shifts in US or international rhetoric toward regime change. Any of these would move the market.