Fresh details have surfaced on the strategy being deployed by President Bola Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress to secure bloc votes from the South and North-Central ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Sources at the APC national secretariat disclosed that the political calculation is aimed at guaranteeing the President’s re-election, even as opposition to his second-term bid grows in parts of the North.
It was learnt that the strategy, which a senior party official described as a “materialising countermeasure,” was initiated over five months ago following intelligence reports that flagged possible threats from the core North and the emergence of an African Democratic Party-led coalition of opposition leaders.
According to party insiders, the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila; Chairman of the APC Governors’ Forum, Hope Uzodimma; APC National Secretary, Ajibola Basiru; and the lawmaker representing Ikeja Federal Constituency, James Faleke, are central figures driving the initiative.
In recent months, influential northern groups, including the Northern Elders Forum and the Arewa Consultative Forum, have openly criticised Tinubu’s administration and indicated reluctance to support him for another term.
The groups have accused the President of sidelining the region in political appointments, project allocation and responses to insecurity.
Some prominent northern politicians—among them former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai; former Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami; former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), Salihu Lukman; and loyalists of the late President Muhammadu Buhari—have also been mobilising opposition to Tinubu in the region.
INEC data from the 2023 presidential election show that Tinubu polled 8,794,726 votes nationwide, with 5,346,686 coming from the North, highlighting the region’s electoral importance.
He won Jigawa, Zamfara, Kogi, Niger, Benue and Borno states, while the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, secured 5,229,473 votes across Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Gombe, Yobe, Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba states.
Amid the northern discontent, findings indicated that the APC has intensified efforts to consolidate Tinubu’s grip on the South and the North-Central.
An APC official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the party’s blueprint was focused on ensuring that no southern state slips to the opposition in 2027.
“The motive behind this move is that no opposition should win any state in the South, to guard against what we experienced in 2023,” he said.
During the last election, Atiku won Osun, Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa states, polling 637,196 votes in the South, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi claimed Lagos, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo, Abia, Anambra, Delta, Cross River and Edo states.
The source explained that the APC intends to reclaim those states through “targeted alliances, elite outreach and federal influence,” adding that recent defections of PDP governors in the South reflected the “materialisation of the countermeasure.”
“The team has successfully delivered the South to the President. There is nothing stopping us from winning all the southern states. Except for Abia and Oyo, all other states in the South are now with the APC.
“The Governor of Osun State declared support for Asiwaju (the President) and was willing to join the APC. Once we secure the targeted bloc votes in the South, we are 50 per cent down the victory line,” the official said.
When contacted, APC National Secretary Ajibola Basiru declined to elaborate, stating, “I don’t discuss strategy on the pages of newspapers. Thank you.”
Efforts to reach APC Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, were unsuccessful as calls and messages went unanswered.
Beyond the South, the APC is also seeking to regain North-Central states lost in 2023, including Plateau, Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory, which were won by Peter Obi.
A senior party source said concrete steps had been taken to reclaim the region.
“According to the plan on the ground, the North-Central is targeted to be the final straw that will break the camel’s back. I am aware that the team has commissioned some individuals in the region to ensure that the President secures bloc votes from there.
“Once we secure the South and the North-Central, whatever votes any opposing candidate gets from the North-East and North-West will be neutralised, and we will carry the day. Do not forget that the Vice President is from Borno, and there are efforts to ensure substantial votes from Kaduna State. The team is working hard to deliver as planned,” the source said.
The Chairman of the North-Central APC Forum, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, confirmed that party leaders in the region were collaborating closely with the Presidency and the APC national leadership.
He said the target was to secure between 80 and 90 per cent of the region’s votes for Tinubu.
“We have been engaged in different consultations. We are meeting with clerics, youth organisations and other groups. The task is to deliver the North-Central for the President, and we are all working to give him a massive vote,” Zazzaga said.
He added, “Since the commencement of democracy in 1999, we have not had any president who has given the North-Central special treatment like Tinubu. He has been fixing our infrastructure and has given us many juicy appointments.
“We have the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission and the APC National Chairman. With our ongoing efforts, we are going to give him 80–90 per cent of our votes.”
Zazzaga noted that the effort was being coordinated with both the APC national secretariat and the Presidency, adding that business leaders and other notable figures in the region were involved. He also expressed confidence that a North-Central candidate would succeed Tinubu after 2031.
However, the Peoples Democratic Party, African Democratic Congress and New Nigeria People’s Party dismissed the APC’s plan as ineffective.
ADC National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, described the ruling party as “living in self-deception.”
“They (APC) are just deluding themselves. They know they have lost the people. That is why they are trying to create the impression that they have control of more states,” he said.
Abdullahi cited governance failures and questioned the electoral value of APC governors, adding, “Is it the same governors they are banking on to win the next election? How many of them can stand before their people and convince them where to go?”
He also downplayed defections to the APC, insisting they were driven by personal ambition rather than ideology.
Similarly, PDP National Publicity Secretary, Ini Ememobong, accused the APC of undermining democracy by attempting to weaken opposition parties.
“The APC is trying to make sure that many of the opposition parties do not have candidates in the 2027 election, and this is not good for our democracy,” he said.
The NNPP also predicted defeat for the ruling party. Its National Publicity Secretary, Ladipo Johnson, argued that the election would ultimately be a contest between Nigerians and the APC.
“However, having all the governors does not guarantee victory. What will determine the election is whether the people of Nigeria will rise, organise themselves and defeat the APC at the polls,” Johnson said.
(PUNCH)