A violent surge in attacks by Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) has left over 100 people dead, including dozens of soldiers, across the BAY (Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe) states this past week. Experts warn that this renewed instability threatens to dismantle the region’s economy and trigger a severe food security crisis.
The recent wave of violence has not only claimed lives but has also proven costly for the Nigerian government. Sources indicate that the loss of manpower and the seizure of high-grade ammunition by insurgents have effectively enriched the terror groups by millions of naira in stolen equipment.
For two decades, persistent insecurity has driven farmers away from their lands, systematically dismantling the agricultural foundation of the Northern economy. Despite government efforts to resettle displaced persons, the nature of the insurgency continues to baffle observers.
Recent attacks have seen terrorists move with increasing boldness from the shores of Lake Chad through communities such as Bama, Konduga, Magumeri, Gwoza, and Gaidam. Most recently, the insurgents captured Ngoshe and the ancient town of Kukawa after overrunning military positions.
After displacing security forces in the Gwoza Local Government Area, terrorists declared Ngoshe village their new administrative headquarters. They are currently holding over 200 women and children hostage—civilians who had only recently returned to Nigeria after a decade in Cameroonian refugee camps.
Security sources report that during the month of Ramadan alone, at least 22 attacks occurred, leaving more than 100 civilians dead, at least 36 soldiers killed, and over 3000 civilians abducted across several communities in Borno State.
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“In the last week in Borno alone, we have lost more than 100 people, aside from six military officers and dozens of soldiers killed in 15 attacks. Over 200 villagers were abducted in Ngoshe village, and they are currently with the terrorists. This is devastating and disheartening.
“President Tinubu should rise to the occasion; he was voted to protect the masses, and Northern governors should stand up against these terrorists. We are losing the battle, and it’s time to salvage the situation.”
Calls for a shift in military strategy
Public affairs analyst Abubakar Mohammed Kareto warned that the frequent loss of highly trained military officers is a “huge blow” that is nearly impossible to replace quickly. He noted that when resettled communities are attacked, the population loses all faith in the government’s ability to protect them.
He added, “In every attack on military bases, Nigeria is losing its finest soldiers. Imagine losing army generals and other ranks this frequently; it is indeed a huge blow to the country and their families. These officers have wives, children and parents. It is painful losing loved ones. These officers are trained at a high cost over a long period; replacing these losses is almost impossible.
He noted, “Yobe, Adamawa and Borno have resettled so many communities with the hope and plans for these communities displaced initially to reestablish their normal lives. Sadly, they have been threatened again. When “resettled” communities are attacked, people don’t just flee; they lose total faith in the government’s ability to protect them.
A civilian JTF source confirmed that terrorists have captured two communities in Borno, aside from unqualified destruction inflicted on military formations overran in the last week of vicious attacks, noting that armed forces are losing ammunition.
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“As you are aware, Boko Haram have captured Ngoshe village, where they vowed to celebrate Eid-el-Fitr Salah, and now today they have taken the ancient town of Kukawa. They are in control of the town because the troops have withdrawn after the killing of their Commanding Officer and some soldiers.
“Another sad development is that when they overpowered the troops, they would burn the operational vehicles and cartway weapons. Later, they would come back and use the weapons against us. We are losing billions of naira to the terrorists,” a CJTF source said.
Also, Bulama Abiso, the Executive Director, Civil Society Organisations in Borno State, urged the military to change its tactics, from defensive to attacking, “It is time to take the war to the insurgents rather than waiting for them to strike. He continued, “there are recent reports that the insurgents were using drones, it is high time for the Nigerian Air Force to prioritise modern warfare preferably electronic warfare and drone jamming capabilities specifically in Lake Chad, Mandara Mountain regions, Baga and other areas where these insurgents often operate.
He lamented, “We have seen another wave of attacks on major towns, which is very, very devastating to the civilian community. I think it is very, very important if they can take this war to the heart of the insurgents. Any day you think is peaceful, the insurgents are regrouping. They are retraining and recouping for them. So they should not be allowed to recoup and then come back and attack on this scale, attacking in the last one is very, very unbecoming of them.
According to him, the government needs to prioritise every move to curtail the insurgents; the recent increase in attacks will cost the government and the communities. Nigeria must not allow the gains of the past in the fight against terrorism to be eroded.
“I wish to call on the security agencies to re-strategise, be proactive, and take actionagainsto the den of the insurgents for the government. We need to re-examine these frameworks so that those who surrender can provide intelligence to the security agencies. We are soliciting the government to rise to the occasion and see to the return of these people to their families,” he charged.
Mamman Mahmood, Lake Chad-based Security and Political Commentator, explained that since February, terrorists have invaded and attacked military formations in Sabon Gari, Buni-Gari, Izge, Yamtake, Wulgo, Marte and Rann.
He said, “I think Nigeria’s territorial integrity is under siege, not by an external army, but by the unchecked influx of untrained terrorists and potential threats through its porous borders.
He revealed, “The country’s border security, particularly in the North, remains weak, allowing individuals from neighbouring countries such as Niger, Chad, and other Sahel nations to enter effortlessly. Over the years, these unchecked movements have fueled criminal activities, including banditry, terrorism, and smuggling, further worsening Nigeria’s security crisis.
Muhammad highlighted that the attacks on Cross Kauwa, Mandaragirau, and Pulka in Borno State in mid-February echoed the attack on Woro, with fighters emerging from the forest to attack Soldiers and burn their base. ISWAP alone raided military bases about 20 times between 2025 and 2026, a significant increase driven by IS leaders’ call for increased violence by all of its affiliates.
“The military must deepen collaboration with local populations for intelligence gathering, as community-sourced information remains invaluable if we truly want to be out of the woods anytime soon. Equally important is streamlining and simplifying channels for civilians to share tips securely, while prioritising the protection of informants. Above all, security forces should shift toward more proactive responses—acting swiftly and decisively on credible intelligence to prevent rather than merely react to threats.”
The sophistication of these attacks—often timed to coincide with the breaking of the Ramadan fast—suggests a tactical evolution. Analysts agree that unless the federal government and Northern governors act decisively to close ungoverned spaces and improve intelligence sharing with locals, the region remains a “time bomb.”