As ransom payments soar into trillions and insecurity drains Nigeria’s economy, the recent US airstrikes on terrorist enclaves in Sokoto and the Federal Government’s deployment of Forest Guards are rekindling cautious optimism. Stakeholders welcome the interventions but warn that without sustained military mop-ups, tech-driven intelligence and state policing, terrorism may simply regroup, writes CHIBUIKE CHUKWU.
Nigeria’s worsening insecurity has evolved into a multi-billion-naira ransom economy, undermining national stability and economic growth.
According to an SBM Intelligence report obtained by our correspondent, about ₦2.57 billion was paid in ransom between July 2024 and June 2025, out of a total demand of ₦48 billion. Further data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and SBM Intelligence show that Nigerians paid over ₦2.2 trillion in ransom between May 2023 and April 2024.
Beyond ransom payments, insecurity continues to exact a heavy toll on the economy, with annual losses estimated at about $15 billion (₦20 trillion) due to disruptions in agriculture, trade, manufacturing and transportation. Investor confidence has also taken a hit, contributing to declining foreign direct investment (FDI).
It is against this backdrop that the recent US airstrikes on ISIS enclaves in Sokoto State have generated renewed optimism about Nigeria’s counter-terrorism efforts.
In a related move to consolidate the gains from the bombardment, President Bola Tinubu approved the recruitment and training of 7,000 Forest Guards under the Presidential Forest Guards Initiative. The guards, drawn from seven frontline states, have completed three months of training and are awaiting deployment.
Reactions across the country suggest cautious optimism that the combined efforts could significantly weaken terrorist groups and other non-state actors. However, concerns remain over sustainability, effectiveness and political will—especially as insecurity has become a lucrative enterprise for criminal networks.
Many Nigerians argue that without addressing kidnapping at its roots—particularly by disrupting communication channels used in ransom negotiations— military actions alone may yield limited results.
Others, however, believe the interventions could mark a turning point as the country steps into the new year.
Dr. Bone Efoziem, security expert and Managing Director of Strict Guards Limited, said the US bombardment and the Forest Guards initiative could achieve measurable success.
“If you ask whether the bombardment will achieve any success in quelling insecurity, my answer is yes,” he said.
According to him, insurgents had begun consolidating territorial control in parts of Sokoto, even installing basic infrastructure such as boreholes and wells—clear signs of long-term occupation.
“They fortified their enclaves with landmines, making it nearly impossible for Nigerian infantry to advance. The forests were better known to them than to our troops,” he explained.
Efoziem said airstrikes help dismantle these fortifications, creating safer conditions for ground operations.
Call for Immediate Military Mop-Up
He warned, however, that airstrikes alone are insufficient.
“The exercise will only be fully successful if it is immediately followed by military mop-up operations,” he said.
“As bombing continues, soldiers must secure the area, clear remnants and guarantee safety. Only then should Forest Guards move in as a preventive force to stop regrouping.”
He described Forest Guards as a governance-presence mechanism in previously ungoverned spaces.
“They may not be combat troops, but they can provide intelligence. Their presence alone signals governance. Without US strikes and military mop-ups, Forest Guards cannot function effectively,” he added.
An IT expert who spoke on condition of anonymity faulted the Federal Government’s explanation on the difficulty of tracking kidnappers’ communications.
He criticised earlier comments by the Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, who cited sophisticated technology and operational challenges as obstacles.
“Even encrypted calls can be tracked,” the expert said. “Claiming otherwise is making a mockery of the issue. The real problems are insincerity and compromise.”
According to him, Nigeria possesses the technology to track kidnappers’ communications, but failure to deploy it has allowed the ransom economy to thrive.
“As long as kidnapping remains lucrative and locations are not busted through technology, even US intervention and Forest Guards may deliver limited results,” he warned.
Former APGA National Chairman, Chief Chekwas Okorie, praised the US intervention, describing it as “clinical” and fear-inducing for insurgents.
“The precision suggests they can strike again, and that alone changes the psychology of terrorists,” he said.
On Forest Guards, Okorie welcomed the initiative, noting that recruiting from host communities would enhance effectiveness.
“They know the terrain and the routes. That’s a major advantage,” he said.
However, he described Forest Guards as a temporary solution, advocating state and community policing as a lasting remedy.
“Forest Guards are remedial. State and community police will be permanent, better trained, and more effective in complementing existing security agencies,” he said.
Former Lagos PDP Chairman and ADC chieftain, Captain Tunji Shelle, also applauded the US intervention, saying it would instil fear among criminal groups.
“I commend the intervention. As long as the Forest Guards initiative is not politicised, it will help reduce kidnapping,” he said.