Petrol Prices in Nigeria Climb Toward ₦1,000 per Litre Despite Stable Naira and Falling Crude Price

Petrol prices in Nigeria have once again sparked nationwide concern after soaring from approximately ₦865 to nearly ₦1,000 per litre, despite relative stability in two major market indicators: global crude oil prices and the exchange rate of the naira against the dollar.

The sharp increase has left many Nigerians baffled and frustrated, questioning the forces truly driving fuel costs in Africa’s largest economy.

According to a report published by The Punch on Friday, October 17, 2025, the development contradicts conventional economic expectations. The naira, which had earlier weakened to about ₦1,700 per US dollar earlier in the year, has strengthened to around ₦1,477 in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the international price of crude oil historically a key factor influencing domestic petrol prices has dropped from above $80 per barrel to about $60.

Despite these seemingly favourable economic shifts, the cost of petrol at retail outlets has surged dramatically, with some stations reportedly selling above ₦950 per litre in parts of the country.

The rise has triggered a new wave of complaints from motorists, transport operators, and households who now face increased costs of living and doing business.

Adding to the confusion is the fact that global crude oil prices experienced a steep decline last week, following remarks by former US President Donald Trump suggesting the possibility of higher tariffs on Chinese goods.

The geopolitical tension caused a temporary disruption in global markets, but prices soon stabilised.

However, within Nigeria, the timing of the domestic petrol price hike closely following the international slump has raised further questions about the actual factors influencing pump prices.

In response to growing public concern, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has pointed the blame at depot operators.

According to IPMAN National President Abubakar Shettima, the sudden increase in fuel prices can be traced to supply disruptions linked to a temporary halt in petrol loading at the Dangote Refinery.

Shettima revealed that when Dangote’s operations paused briefly, it led to a tightening of supply in the market. This scarcity, in turn, triggered a spike in the depot price of petrol, rising from an average of ₦830 to between ₦890 and ₦900 per litre.

“Once Dangote temporarily stopped loading, the supply gap created an opportunity for speculators and depot operators to raise prices,” Shettima said. “We are hopeful that with loading resumed, we will begin to see a gradual return to stability.”

Officials at the Dangote Refinery have confirmed that petrol loading activities have since resumed.

However, the resumed operations have yet to reflect meaningfully at filling stations, where prices continue to hover near the ₦1,000 mark.

Industry insiders attribute this to lagging supply chain adjustments and the delayed effect of resumed loading on the broader distribution network.

Industry analysts suggest that speculation, market volatility, and Nigeria’s continued dependence on imported refined petroleum products are also contributing factors to the sustained high prices.

Despite the gradual operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery touted as a potential game-changer for Nigeria’s downstream sector the country remains highly vulnerable to fluctuations in supply and inefficiencies in fuel distribution.

“The reality is that even with global crude prices falling and the naira gaining strength, we are still not insulated from internal bottlenecks,” said energy economist Jide Oladele. “Until domestic refining becomes consistent and scalable, Nigerians will continue to suffer the impact of a fragile and unpredictable fuel supply chain.”

Some marketers have also alleged that depot owners are engaging in opportunistic pricing, capitalising on even brief supply disruptions to increase margins. This has renewed calls for greater oversight and transparency in the pricing and distribution of petroleum products across the country.

As the festive season approaches, a time when fuel demand typically spikes consumers are growing increasingly concerned that the situation may worsen before it improves.

Transporters have already begun adjusting fares in response to the hike, further compounding inflationary pressures on essential goods and services.

With the government yet to offer an official explanation or intervention, Nigerians are left to navigate another wave of fuel price volatility that appears to defy market logic.

The consensus among experts is that price normalisation will depend heavily on the sustained and stable operation of local refineries, particularly Dangote’s, which has been seen as a key solution to the country’s longstanding fuel crisis.