To say that Trump was duped into Netanyahu’s decades-long dream of the destruction of Iran is likely inaccurate or at least a stretch. After all, the American President blew apart a nuclear deal, applied a “Maximum pressure” campaign of sanctions, and dropped “Bunker buster” bombs on Iran in June, 2025.
However, Trump clearly set the stage for Netanyahu to raise the curtain on the current show. Trump assembled the ships, planes, tankers, bombs, and personnel for combat. Though in Donald’s mind, this was possibly a display and an act of intimidation to get the regime to sign a deal, rather than a committed use of his assembled force. Similar to the Caribbean scenario, where the Venezuelan raid engaged only a special fraction of Trump’s total military deployment to make an arrest, albeit an elaborate one.
Although the U.S. military was fully prepared for substantial involvement in Iran, the Trump administration appeared not to be, as it struggled to define the goal or answer the fundamental question, “Why is America attacking Iran?”
The upsides for an American war with Iran are few, and the downsides are many
America was under no immediate threat from Iran; arguably, neither was Israel. But Netanyahu, having Trump’s U.S. military in location, seized the opportunity to further degrade the Iranian regime and its military capability. Containing Iran’s nuclear program and further weakening its proxies are in America’s interests, but these have mostly been achieved previously. A change to a less awful Iranian government is certainly desirable, but this was not an urgent concern for America, as the regime has existed for 47 years, and war doesn’t promise an improved Iranian administration.
The American war with Iran risks a costly entanglement that could last for months, even years. And peace and stability for a prosperous Middle East (even for Israel) is far from assured. The war will sap American money, military, morale, and credibility, as it did in Afghanistan and Iraq (the military operations alone for the Iranian war are costing Americans about $900 million per day, according to the CSIS, Center for Strategic and International Studies). Furthermore, enthusiasm and resources are depleted for higher-priority military interventions, both current and future. The effort to push Putin out of Ukraine was hampered by America’s mixed experience in previous Middle Eastern wars, and will be further hampered by this war in Iran, by the availability of fewer American arms, and by the diverted attention.
A shift to moderate leadership is unlikely
The Ayatollah has been killed and replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, suggesting no softening or moderation of the Iranian regime. The likelihood of moderate leadership emerging from the ruins is remote, given the absence of an alternative figurehead and a clear pathway. A more nationalist and militarist-bent regime is likely to follow, according to many analyses, including those by Suzanne Maloney at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Iran’s lateral retaliation of inflicting pain and discomfort, now on countries worldwide, can become economically and politically more damaging than additional bombs dropped on Iran. In a bazaar way, the Iranian regime looks increasingly like a winner. Worse, America may find itself on the back foot as it exits. Politics back home (for instance, an upset by increases in gas (petrol) prices) could determine a hasty and careless retreat reminiscent of Afghanistan in 2019, where Trump essentially handed victory to the Taliban to meet a political schedule.
Israel risks American support
The Iran war still has many Americans puzzled as to why (it certainly hasn’t helped that President Trump has offered no compelling argument for U.S. military intervention to its allies, let alone the American public). In a CNN poll published in The New York Times on March 10, 2026, only about 41% of Americans favored military intervention in Iran — a low level of enthusiasm given the scale of the undertaking and compared with previous U. S. wars.
In entering a war with Iran alongside Israel, Donald Trump appears to be doing Netanyahu’s bidding to increase his chances of holding onto power in this year’s election. As the negative impacts of this war are felt by Americans, the interests of Israel and America will likely diverge and may damage the trust built over decades. American support for Israel is likely to decline; this follows historic lows largely due to Gaza. The recovery will be challenging.