Russia to Gain from Chad’s Threat to Exit Lake Chad Security Agreement

Soldiers in the Multinational Force making an operation to clear out Boko Haram strongholds on Lake Chad in April 2022. (credit: Government of Nigeria).

In a development that could reshape regional security dynamics and potentially expand Russian influence in Africa, Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno has signaled his country’s possible withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) following a deadly Boko Haram attack.

The attack, at a Chadian National Army position in Barkaram on October 27, 2024, resulted in the death of more than 40 Chadian soldiers and has raised questions about the effectiveness of Western-backed regional security arrangements.

Dr. Walid Abdullahi, a security analyst based in Birnin-Kebbi, tells TruthNigeria that Chad President Deby believes underlying tensions have resulted from security deficits on the part of Nigeria. “Chad feels betrayed by Nigeria, as this attack occurred along their shared border by a Nigerian-origin terror group,” he explained. “The incident reflects a deeper crisis of trust among regional partners,” Abdullahi told TruthNigeria.

President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno. Credit: VOA
President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno. Credit: VOA
In a statement obtained by PRNigeria, President Deby cited “the lack of unified action against Boko Haram as the coalition appears to be losing momentum in the fight against this common enemy.” The statement was issued by Hassan Abdelkerim Bouyëbri, the Director General of Communication in the Presidency.

This isn’t Chad’s first expression of dissatisfaction with the MNJTF. In 2020, following an attack that killed nearly 100 Chadian soldiers, the country temporarily withdrew from joint operations, citing similar concerns about coordination failures.

Dr. Samuel Okon, a terrorism expert based in Uyo, sees systemic issues in the regional response to terrorism. “The continued thriving of insurgency and terrorism in Nigeria can be largely attributed to weak intelligence coordination among security forces,” he stated. “This fragmentation creates opportunities for terrorist groups to exploit operational gaps,” he told Truth Nigeria

The situation has broader geopolitical implications, particularly for U.S. interests in Africa. Okon warns of potential consequences. “Chad’s potential withdrawal from the MNJTF could create a vacuum that Russia is eager to fill,” he noted. “Moscow has already strengthened its presence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and other Sahel nations through military cooperation and the Wagner Group’s activities.”

Since arriving at the war front on October 28, President Deby has taken several immediate actions:

Establishing a local command center;

Launching Operation Haskanite to neutralize militants;

Reorganizing defense forces for asymmetric warfare;

Strengthening border security measures;

Ensuring proper burials for fallen soldiers and medical care for the injured,

The MNJTF, established in 1994, is composed of military units from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. While initially focused on trans-border banditry, it expanded to counter-terrorism operations in 2012 under African Union authorization.

“The U.S. should be particularly concerned about these developments,” says Dr Okon “As Western-supported security arrangements face challenges, Russia is positioning itself as an alternative security partner across the Sahel. This could significantly undermine U.S. influence and counter-terrorism efforts in a strategically critical region.”

Recent months have seen increasing Russian diplomatic and military engagement across Africa, with several countries reducing ties with traditional Western partners. A Chadian withdrawal from the MNJTF could accelerate this trend, potentially leading to increased Russian military presence in the Lake Chad Basin region.

President Deby reaffirmed his commitment to protecting Chad’s citizens while considering the MNJTF withdrawal. However, regional observers note that Chad’s military decisions could have far-reaching implications for African security architecture and global power dynamics.

The situation presents a critical challenge for U.S. policymakers: how to maintain influence in Africa while supporting more effective regional security arrangements. As Russia expands its presence in the Sahel, the effectiveness of Western-backed security initiatives like the MNJTF may determine the future of international partnerships in Africa’s fight against terrorism.

Sources: TruthNigeria